Europundit

No demographic crisis?

IHT has published an opinion piece by Jonathan Power, arguing that we're not facing a demographic crisis. Key graphs:

"But what does that mean? Should Europe bring in 170 million immigrants by mid-century to keep its population aged 16 to 64 at today's level - which it would have to if the German arithmetic were applied across Europe?

To worsen the mix, and the emotions, during the last couple of weeks the serious press has been busy linking the pension reform movement now finally gathering speed in France, Germany and Britain to Europe's weakening economically, militarily and culturally as it lets in sufficient immigrants to cause more social and cultural turbulence but not enough to compensate for its falling population and concomitant economic decline.

But a trend, we should know by now, is not a final statement. After years of a dramatically falling birthrate, Sweden now exhibits signs of a reverse. Italy, Germany and Spain are introducing incentives that will encourage couples to have more children. In Britain and France the decline in population is happening more slowly and could probably be reversed with the same kind of encouraging policies that the Scandinavian governments have fashioned.

Among the wealthier members of Europe's middle classes, larger families are already more popular than a generation ago, suggesting that while increased general prosperity may at first encourage a low birth rate as young couples become consumer-conscious, sustainable wealth may work the other way.

The pension debate is equally misleading. Every study has shown that the simple expedient of the rising of the retiring age - but by more than the handful of years that is now being proposed in Germany and France - can knock the bottom out of a large part of this problem. In an age when people are living longer and healthier lives, it is absurd that people should renounce working so early in life."

Scott Martens argued likewise a while ago.

Posted by David Weman at August 7, 2003 11:52 PM | TrackBack